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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."